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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 15 at the 39
Chicago Bears 0 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(1:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
+0.13 EP
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.55 EP
- 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.44 EP
KICK
+0.44 EP
- 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
- 41% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT
+0.50 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
