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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 54

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(5:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (25-M.Jones) [99-K.White].

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP