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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 58

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 46 for 4 yards (48-J.Tavai) [44-J.Giles-Harris].

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.91 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model