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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 7

New England Patriots 13 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP