Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 97

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 13

(13:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to NE 35, Center-46-S.Daly. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 11 yards (45-A.Ogbongbemiga).

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.97 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 97, worth -6.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model