Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 76

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to NE 26, Center-46-S.Daly. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 28. 25-M.Jones to NE 38 for 10 yards (20-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model