Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 75

New England Patriots 13 – Chicago Bears 3

(2:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.89 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model