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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 73

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to NE 21, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model