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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 50

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to NE 14, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-22-E.Hicks.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.23 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model