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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.78 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP