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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to MIN 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 4-B.Powell to MIN 16 for 9 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model