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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to JAX 31, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model