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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model