Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to LA 34, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 34.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model