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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 20 – Los Angeles Rams 12

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.28 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model