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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP