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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 63

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to MIA 16, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-M.Washington ran ob at MIA 18 for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.43 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model