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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 16-J.Karty 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.29 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model