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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP