4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-M.Washington pushed ob at MIA 36 for 12 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.31 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model