Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 72

Houston Texans 23 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DET 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 38 for 20 yards (13-D.Phillips). PENALTY on DET-51-B.Niemann, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model