Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 98

Houston Texans 23 – Detroit Lions 7

(12:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to DET 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-K.Raymond to HOU 44 for 14 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.35 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 98, worth -6.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model