Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 68

Detroit Lions 7 – Houston Texans 16

(3:24) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to HOU 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 82-S.Sims to HOU 33 for 11 yards (33-S.Vaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model