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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 11

Houston Texans 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model