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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 38

Houston Texans 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model