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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 14-M.Araiza punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP