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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 17

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +1.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model