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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 2

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP