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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 29-K.Hunt left guard to DEN 10 for 2 yards (55-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model