4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 64 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 43 for 28 yards (48-C.Christiansen).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 36, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model