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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 2

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model