Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 21 for 9 yards (52-J.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model