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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 9, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model