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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 1-J.Downs to BUF 15 for 15 yards (24-C.Bishop).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.78 EP