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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 20 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model