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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 15
Buffalo Bills 20 – Indianapolis Colts 13
What Actually Happened
(13:12) 17-J.Allen up the middle to IND 10 for 5 yards (99-D.Buckner).
The Three Options
GO
+3.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
KICK
+1.28 EP
- 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
