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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 20 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to IND 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-39-C.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model