Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

(1:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model