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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP