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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to IND 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP