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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 1-C.Samuel (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model