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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 43-M.Hayball punts 51 yards to ATL 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 26-A.Williams to ATL 19 for 8 yards (38-M.Bradford).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model