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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP