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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 53, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP