Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 20

(14:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to NO 20, Center-49-L.McCullough. 80-J.Jackson to NO 38 for 18 yards (51-D.Malone; 25-T.Allgeier).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.15 EP
53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model