Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(14:57) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to ATL 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model