4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 8

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP