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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 6-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-31-J.Howden has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP