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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to ATL 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-36-R.Payton.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model