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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP